Commodity prices tumble to lowest level since mid-2009 – Scotiabank

Oil prices should recover moderately by mid-2015, alongside an international supply-side adjustment

Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index plunged -10.3% month-over-month (m/m) and -15.4% year-over-year (yr/yr) in December to mid-2009 levels.

“A fight for market share in international oil and iron ore markets as well as general unease over lacklustre global economic conditions and an almost ‘deflationary’ environment — particularly in the Eurozone and Japan — contributed to widespread softness in commodity prices,” said Patricia Mohr, Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist at Scotiabank. “However, in contrast to many commodities, gold prices have strengthened in recent months — a welcome development for the Toronto Stock Exchange.

“Uncertainty over global growth and pressure on some oil-related currencies has given gold a renewed bid as a ‘safe haven’. The outlook for the physical gold market also appears to be fairly strong, with record or near-record bullion imports into India in the second half of fiscal 2014.

“After retreating to low levels, silver prices have rallied to US$17-18 per ounce, a positive development for the world’s major producers in Mexico and Peru. Mexico is the world’s top silver producer, accounting for 20.7% of world production, and Peru the second largest, with a 14.4% share.”

Another highlight from the report includes:

Spot potash prices for the standard grade (FOB Vancouver) were unchanged in December at US$320 per tonne — up only modestly from a low of US$295 in January 2014. However, the operating performance of Canada’s three major potash producers has improved over the past year, with record global potash demand in 2014 (estimated at 58-60 million tonnes).

Read the full Scotiabank Commodity Price Index online at: http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html.
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